Winners and Losers: How U.S. Government Shutdowns Affect the Stock Market

A U.S. federal government shutdown can have significant effects on the stock market, impacting various sectors differently based on their reliance on government funding, contracts, and broader economic implications. Analysing historical shutdowns and sectoral impacts reveals clear patterns of winners and losers.

Sectors Likely to Suffer the Most

1. Defense and Aerospace Contractors

   Why? These sectors are heavily reliant on federal contracts, which can face delays in funding during a shutdown.

   Examples: Companies like Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and Raytheon (RTX) typically experience uncertainty due to stalled payments.

   Historical Evidence: During the 2018-2019 shutdown, delays in contract approvals weighed on defense stocks.

   
   

2. Healthcare Providers and Insurers

   Why? These companies are affected by disruptions to federal health programs like Medicare and Medicaid. While payments usually continue, administrative slowdowns can harm sentiment.

   Examples: UnitedHealth Group (UNH), CVS Health (CVS), and other managed care providers may see short-term volatility.

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3. Consumer Discretionary

   Why? Government employees and contractors impacted by missed paychecks tend to cut back on discretionary spending.

   Examples: Companies like Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Starbucks (SBUX) may feel the pinch as consumer sentiment wanes.
   

   Historical Evidence: During past shutdowns, sectors tied to consumer confidence experienced weakness as affected workers tightened their budgets.

   
   

4. Financials

   Why? Banks and mortgage lenders suffer as federal services like FHA loan approvals and IRS income verification stall, potentially delaying home purchases and other lending.

   Examples: Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), and mortgage REITs like Annaly Capital (NLY) could face pressures.

Sectors Likely to Benefit

1. Gold and Precious Metals

   Why? Shutdowns typically fuel risk aversion, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.

   Examples: Gold miners such as Newmont (NEM) and ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) often perform well.

   Historical Evidence: During the 2018-2019 shutdown, gold prices rose approximately 7% as markets priced in uncertainty.

   
   

2. Treasury and Fixed-Income ETFs

   Why? Investors often shift to bonds during periods of federal instability, boosting treasury-focused ETFs.

   Examples: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) may benefit.

   
   

3. Utilities

   Why? As a defensive sector, utilities generally outperform during periods of market volatility and reduced economic activity.

   Examples: Companies like Duke Energy (DUK) and NextEra Energy (NEE) provide stability when broader markets falter.

   
   

4. Technology (Selective Subsegments)

   Why? Some tech firms (like cloud providers) with less exposure to federal contracts can benefit from continued private-sector demand.

   Examples: While firms like Amazon (AMZN) face disruptions in AWS contracts, consumer tech services (e.g., Apple (AAPL)) are largely insulated.

   
   

Historical Patterns

• 2013 Shutdown:

• The 16-day shutdown caused the S&P 500 to drop briefly before rebounding sharply after a resolution. Consumer discretionary and financials were hit, while gold gained.

  
  

• 2018-2019 Shutdown:

• The 35-day shutdown led to market volatility, with defense contractors and small-cap stocks suffering the most due to their reliance on government spending.

A U.S. federal government shutdown can create significant volatility in the stock market, with different sectors feeling the impact in varying degrees.

While industries reliant on government contracts, such as defense, healthcare, and consumer discretionary, tend to suffer from delayed funding and decreased consumer spending. Sectors like gold, precious metals, utilities, and selective technology firms can benefit from the uncertainty and risk aversion that a shutdown generates.

By understanding these historical patterns, investors can better position their portfolios to navigate the disruptions that often accompany periods of federal instability. Although each shutdown is unique, examining past trends provides valuable insights for managing risks and capitalising on opportunities during such times.

Alpesh Patel OBE

www.campaignforamillion.com 

Visit www.alpeshpatel.com/shares for more and see www.alpeshpatel.com/links

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