Is Market Timing Dead? Michael Burry Said “Sell.” I Said “Buy.” Who Was Right?

Updated February 2025

The Day Burry Said “Sell” and Why I Said “Buy” Instead

In February 2023, as markets twitched before yet another Federal Reserve rate decision, Michael Burry - the man immortalised in The Big Short - resurfaced with a single-word prophecy: “Sell.”

Bloomberg dutifully amplified it. Twitter (as it still was) treated it like Moses had wandered down from Sinai.

I replied with something far less cryptic: “wrong. Buy.”

That was 1 February 2023.

Is Market Timing Dead_ Burry vs Buy Thesis.pdf

Download PDF • 72.96MB

What the Market Actually Did Next

The S&P 500 has climbed substantially since that moment – delivering one of the most powerful 18-month rallies in modern history. Anyone who “sold everything” missed what Bloomberg later called a “generational bull surge.” Burry wasn’t trading the market; he was trading his mystique.

This isn’t about dunking on anyone. Burry is brilliant. But brilliance and timing rarely cohabit peacefully. Even the best forecasters are seduced by the thrill of drama – apocalyptic predictions generate followers, not wealth.

Markets reward patience, data, and the willingness to be dull when everyone else is exciting themselves into a frenzy.

And this, really, is the point.

The Billion-Dollar Hedge Fund I Never Launched

Twenty years ago, I was expected to run a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund. I had the track record, the infrastructure, and the Bloomberg audience.

But I chose something different: building tools, data, and education for ordinary investors rather than extracting 2-and-20 from institutions.

Why I Chose Impact Over Headlines

That decision wasn’t fashionable. It also wasn’t optimised for the “rich list.” But it was optimised for something the industry rarely talks about: impact.

And crucially unlike those bankable, headline-friendly “doom calls”; my approach is built on evidence, not theatre.

Why I Didn’t Follow Burry - The Data Didn’t Justify Panic

When Burry said “Sell,” the data didn’t justify panic.

Quality and Valuation Metrics Told a Different Story

Quality, high-Sortino, fundamentally undervalued companies were trading at reasonable multiples.Earnings resilience was improving.Inflation was cresting.

Behavioural sentiment was stretched. That’s the kind of market my Great Investments Programme (GIP) thrives in.

And so I said so.

Would You Rather Be Rich and Wrong or Poorer and Right?

It’s a dilemma the City never resolves.

The Drama Problem in Finance

If you issue a dramatic call and you’re wrong, nobody remembers.If you issue a dramatic call and you’re right, they erect a statue.

If you issue boring, data-backed guidance that keeps people compounding steadily every year… well, that’s not very Netflix-friendly, is it?

The Only Thing That Actually Builds Wealth

I’ll pick “rich and wrong” any day over “poor and right.”Because investing is not a moral exam; it’s a compounding engine.

Being directionally correct over long periods matters more than being theatrically right for five minutes.

Why This Matters And Why I Built Campaign for a Million

Most people approaching retirement are not served by celebrities, doom predictors, or expensive fund managers.

They need:

• Data, not drama

• Discipline, not dopamine

• A strategy that compounds quietly in the background

• A system that avoids the underperformance trap of traditional managed funds

That’s why I built Campaign for a Million – a mission to equip one million ordinary investors with institutional-grade tools, free education, and transparent methods, so they’re not hostage to anyone’s “Big Short moment.”

If you want to invest with evidence rather than emotion, and avoid getting whiplash from celebrity predictions, start here: www.campaignforamillion.com

Final Lesson: Ignore the Loudest Person in the Room

Sometimes the most valuable financial skill is simply ignoring the loudest person in the room.

The Difference Between Theatrics and Wealth

If you’d listened to Burry in 2023, you’d have missed a bull market.If you’d listened to the data, you’d have caught it.

And that’s the difference between theatrics… and wealth.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and education only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All investing carries risk. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Always do your own research or consult a regulated financial adviser before making investment decisions. Alpesh Patel OBE www.campaignforamillion.com