Alpesh Patel's Top 10 Things to Watch in the Stock Market This Week (12 October 2026)
By Alpesh Patel OBE, hedge fund manager and Financial Times author
Every Monday I go through the ten things I'm watching in the markets this week, and what each one means for anyone running their own portfolio. Where the Great Investments Programme already has a lesson, tool or published stock example on the topic, I link to it, so members can go straight to it. If you're not a member yet, you can see what's inside the programme here.
1. The bull market turns four today. The S&P 500 closed Friday at a record 7,811 and has more than doubled since the October 2022 low. You can always find a reason it can't last: oil, a war, the highest bond yields in 24 years. But analysts expect third-quarter earnings growth of around 25% or more, and over the long run it's earnings that move prices. A bull market's age tells you very little about when it ends. GIP members: Assessing Market Bubble Risk shows the checklist I use before I believe "it's a bubble" headlines.
2. Bond yields are the real story. The US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31% last Monday, its highest since 2002, and ended the week at 5.24%. When you can get 5% from the US government, shares have to work harder to justify their price. That's why the process I teach keeps two years of spending in cash in the bank, so you're never forced to sell shares at the wrong time. GIP members: When Should You Move to Cash?
3. Oil is pulling in two directions. Brent fell to about $103 early today after President Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine, then climbed to around $106.80, its highest since 29 September, after Houthi strikes on Riyadh's international airport. Expensive oil feeds straight into inflation, and inflation decides interest rates. I explain how I look at oil and yields together in the video below.
4. The big US banks report tomorrow. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup report before the US open on Tuesday, then Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock on Wednesday. Watch loan losses: they're the first sign of stress among consumers. Goldman Sachs was one of the published stock examples on the Great Investments Programme's 2024 list, at +54.8% for the year. GIP members: Model Portfolios: Goldman Sachs
5. The AI trade gets its test. ASML reports on Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday. These two companies make the AI boom physically possible, so their order books tell you whether the data-centre spending is still accelerating. NVIDIA appeared in GIP's published stock examples for both 2023 (+238%) and 2024 (+150%). GIP members: AI Stocks 2026 Analysis
6. US inflation lands on Wednesday at 13:30 UK time. Economists expect September inflation to rise to around 3.6% to 3.7% from 3.4%, mostly because of petrol, with core inflation steady at about 2.4% to 2.5%. Producer prices follow on Thursday. Markets currently put roughly an 82% chance on the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October, and about 17% on another hike. A hot number would change that quickly. GIP members: The Sleep Easy App on Stock Volatility
7. The FTSE 100 is lagging, and banks are leading it. The FTSE 100 traded around 10,630 this afternoon, with HSBC, Standard Chartered and Lloyds among the top risers. It's still about 3% below its February closing high, while the S&P 500 sits at records. That gap is a good reminder of why I never limit my research to one country. UK GDP for August is out Thursday at 7am, and Barclays reports on 22 October. GIP members: The Importance of Diversification
8. The UK Budget is 16 days away. The Chancellor delivers the Autumn Budget on Wednesday 28 October. One change is already confirmed: from 6 April 2027 the Cash ISA allowance falls to £12,000 for under-65s, while the overall £20,000 ISA allowance stays. If you've been sitting in cash because shares feel risky, this is the nudge to learn how to invest properly inside a Stocks and Shares ISA. GIP members: What About the Decade Before Retirement?
9. Gold is near $4,200 and bitcoin is losing ETF money. Spot gold touched about $4,206 an ounce overnight on ETF inflows and a softer dollar. Bitcoin sits around $83,000 to $84,000, after $681 million left bitcoin ETFs last week. When a holding has run hard, the question is not "will it go higher?" but "is it now too big a part of my portfolio?" GIP members: Taking Profits and Rebalancing
10. Analysts change their minds too. Bank of America double-upgraded Salesforce from Underperform to Buy this morning and raised its price target to $285 from $160, reversing the bearish call it made in May. Analyst ratings are useful data, but they're not a process. I look at how earnings estimates are moving, not just the headline rating. GIP members: Analysts Estimates and How To See What's In Top Hedge Funds' Portfolios
Want the full process, not just the headlines?
Members of the Great Investments Programme get my daily commentary, weekly market updates, a monthly shortlist of the 200 highest-ranked stocks from a 10,000-stock research universe, and 1-to-1 educational calls with me. See everything that's included.
Book a call with my team. We'll look at how you pick investments now, and whether the Great Investments Programme makes sense for you.
Important: This article is for education only and is not personal financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment. Alpesh Patel Ventures Ltd provides general investment education and is not authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority to give regulated investment advice. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The GIP stock examples quoted are selected published examples, not the full list or typical member returns. Market data is as at 12 October 2026 and may have changed since publication.
Comments