Alpesh Patel's Top 10 Things to Watch in the Stock Market This Week (26 October 2026)
By Alpesh Patel OBE, hedge fund manager and Financial Times author
Every Monday I go through the ten things I'm watching in the markets this week, and what each one means for anyone running their own portfolio. Where the Great Investments Programme already has a lesson, tool or published stock example on the topic, I link to it, so members can go straight to it. If you're not a member yet, you can see what's inside the programme here.
1. The AI trade had a second bad week. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,623.68, down 0.47% for its second weekly loss in a row, and the Nasdaq 100 is now about 7.5% below its high for the year. Thursday was the worst session since July after Meta's first cash outflow in more than a decade revived doubts about AI spending, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.7% that day. Meta lost 9.4% over the week, and Citadel's Ken Griffin has joined the voices warning of a bubble. Meta was one of the published stock examples on the Great Investments Programme's list in both 2023 (+197.35%) and 2024 (+62.8%), which is exactly why I rebalance: a winner that has grown into too big a slice of your portfolio hurts more on a week like this. GIP members: Assessing Market Bubble Risk
2. Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon report this week. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the US close on Wednesday, so the numbers land after 8pm UK time, and Amazon follows after the close on Thursday. Around 160 S&P 500 companies report in total, including Eli Lilly, Boeing, Coca-Cola, ExxonMobil and Chevron. The focus will be on how much these companies plan to spend on AI and whether they are seeing a return on it. Amazon was one of GIP's published 2023 stock examples at +82.55%. GIP members: AI Stocks 2026 Analysis
3. The Fed decides on Wednesday at 6pm UK time. The UK clocks went back yesterday but the US clocks don't change until next weekend, so for this week US events are an hour earlier than usual for us. CME futures this morning put an 88.5% chance on the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.75% to 4.00%, and 11.5% on a hike. Chair Kevin Warsh has refused to give the usual forward guidance, so the press conference at 6.30pm matters as much as the decision. The European Central Bank follows on Thursday at 1.15pm, and the Bank of England doesn't meet until 5 November. GIP members: The Complete S&P500 Playbook for All Situations
4. Oil is near a six-month high. Brent finished last week up about 6% and settled nearly $3 higher on Friday after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia. Early this morning it eased to around $115 a barrel as Qatari mediators visited Tehran to help calm tensions. Expensive oil feeds inflation, and inflation is what keeps rates high. It's one more reason I keep two years of spending in cash, so a shock like this never forces me to sell shares. GIP members: When Should You Move to Cash?
5. US growth and inflation land together on Thursday at 12.30pm UK time. Economists expect third-quarter GDP growth of around 3.2%, up from 2.2% in the second quarter. September's PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred measure, is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.4%, with core PCE at 3.1% from 3.0%. These figures arrive the day after the Fed decides, so a surprise would shape expectations for December. I don't try to trade the number; I make sure nothing in my portfolio depends on it. GIP members: Is Market Timing Dead?
6. Earnings are still strong underneath the noise. More than 120 S&P 500 companies had reported by Friday and about 83% beat earnings expectations, according to FactSet. Blended earnings growth for the quarter is running at about 29.5%, which would be the third quarter in a row above 25%. So prices fell last week while profits kept rising. That's why I watch how analysts' earnings estimates are moving rather than the daily headlines. GIP members: Analysts Estimates
7. Bond yields have slipped back below 5%. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 11 basis points last week to 4.99%, after Thursday's sell-off in shares pushed money into government bonds. Lower yields take some pressure off share valuations, but they are still high by the standards of the past 20 years. When cash and bonds pay this much, I want the shares I own to earn their place on value, growth and income. GIP members: VGI: Value Growth Income
8. The FTSE 100 lost ground ahead of the Budget. The FTSE 100 closed Friday at 10,690.36, down 0.32% on the day and about 1.8% over the week, as rising oil prices added to inflation worries. Lloyds and Shell are among the UK companies reporting on Thursday. Chancellor John Healey delivers his first Autumn Budget on Wednesday, the first under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, with the already-announced cut to the Cash ISA allowance due from April 2027. Budget headlines rarely change a long-term plan; I wait for the detail before changing anything. GIP members: The Importance of Diversification
9. Gold and bitcoin both had a rough week. Spot gold fell 4% last week, its steepest weekly drop since June, and hit its lowest level since mid-July before edging up to about $4,010 an ounce this morning. Bitcoin dropped as low as $79,146 on Saturday, its weakest in more than a month, and was around $80,400 on Sunday, with more than $810 million of crypto positions liquidated in 24 hours. Assets that were described as safe havens can fall hard too. That's why no single holding should be big enough to keep you awake at night. GIP members: Taking Profits and Rebalancing
10. One broker went from sell to buy on SpaceX. On Friday PhillipCapital double-upgraded SpaceX to buy from sell and raised its price target to $250 from $75, after lifting its revenue forecasts sharply. On the same day Seaport reiterated its sell rating on Nvidia, citing competitive pressure. Two firms, two very different views on the AI story in a single morning. A rating change is a data point, not a process: I check it against how earnings estimates and the fundamentals are moving. GIP members: A Stock Selection Checklist
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Important: This article is for education only and is not personal financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment. Alpesh Patel Ventures Ltd provides general investment education and is not authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority to give regulated investment advice. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The GIP stock examples quoted are selected published examples, not the full list or typical member returns. Market data is as at 26 October 2026 and may have changed since publication.
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