Why Investors Should Stop Obsessing About US Debt (and Other Macro Ghost Stories)

Every week, someone asks me: “Alpesh, what about the size of US debt? Won’t that bring down the equity markets?”

It’s a fair concern. The US is carrying over $34 trillion in federal debt (US Treasury), a number so large it might as well be Monopoly money.

Commentators talk about fiscal cliffs, debt ceilings, and looming crises as if the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are already saddling up.

But here’s the inconvenient truth: markets don’t live in the headlines. If they did, the S&P 500 would have collapsed a dozen times over in the last century.

Instead, it has compounded at around 10% annually since 1926 (Morningstar) - through wars, recessions, oil shocks, dot-com busts, and yes, mushrooming government debt.

Buffett’s Blind Spot for Macro

Warren Buffett, the world’s most famous investor, is known for many things - folksy wisdom, Cherry Coke, and the occasional $50 billion acquisition. What he’s not known for is obsessing about GDP forecasts or debt-to-GDP ratios.

Buffett himself said: “If you spend your life worrying about the macro picture, you will waste your life.”

He buys businesses, not economic predictions. His holding period, famously, is “forever.” That’s because resilient companies outlast macro noise. Coca-Cola sells sugary fizz in booms and busts. Apple sells iPhones whether Washington is running a surplus or a deficit. The right stocks are like camels in the desert—they survive droughts because they’ve adapted to scarcity.

GIP: An All-Weather Approach

That’s exactly the philosophy behind the Great Investments Programme. We’re not here to gamble on whether Jerome Powell sneezes during a press conference or Congress squabbles over a debt ceiling.

Instead, we focus on data-driven selection:

Quality scores: Companies with strong balance sheets and consistent earnings.

Sortino ratios: Rewarding return relative to downside risk.

CROCI filters: Cash-return-on-capital to separate the genuinely profitable from the pretenders.

Think of it as the difference between buying a sturdy umbrella versus predicting tomorrow’s exact rainfall in inches. One is practical, the other is fortune-telling.

Investing is Holding, Not Trading

Clients often confuse investing with trading. Investing means ownership, patience, and resilience. Trading is speculation, headlines, and heartburn.

Yes, US debt may balloon further. Yes, politicians may stage yet another theatrical showdown. But equity markets are forward-looking machines. They price in fear quickly, then move on. Investors who panic out often miss the recovery - the part where real wealth is made.

The Least Regrettable Decision

At GIP, we frame it like this: 

• What’s the least regrettable decision you can make?

• If you sell because of macro fears, and markets rise, will you regret missing out?

• If you hold, and markets wobble, will you regret the volatility?

• If you stick to your long-term plan with resilient stocks, will you regret ignoring the noise?

In the long run, history suggests the last option delivers both wealth and peace of mind.

Conclusion

The US debt clock is scary, but it’s not an investment strategy. Headlines don’t compound, quality businesses do. Buffett never needed a time machine, and neither do we.

Investing, done right, is boring. It’s about resilience, not clairvoyance. And that’s precisely why it works.

Sources

• U.S. Debt Tops $34 Trillion – Fortune, June 2024. Read here

• Gross National Debt Topped $34 Trillion – Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), Jan 2024. Read here

• National Debt of the United States – Wikipedia (updated 2025). Read here

• Average Annual Returns Since 1926 – Morningstar, Education Resource. Read here

• S&P 500 Historical CAGR (~9.8% Since 1926) – Wikipedia. Read here

• Warren Buffett on Ignoring Macro Factors – GuruFocus. Read here

• Is Warren Buffett a Macro Investor? – Forbes. Read here
  

Alpesh B Patel     www.campaignforamillion.com