Alpesh Patel's Top 10 Things to Watch in the Stock Market This Week (19 October 2026)
By Alpesh Patel OBE, hedge fund manager and Financial Times author
Every Monday I go through the ten things I'm watching in the markets this week, and what each one means for anyone running their own portfolio. Where the Great Investments Programme already has a lesson, tool or published stock example on the topic, I link to it, so members can go straight to it. If you're not a member yet, you can see what's inside the programme here.
1. The AI trade had a wobble. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.5% last week, ending a four-week winning streak, and the S&P 500 lost 2% to close Friday at 7,659.44. The Dow went the other way and rose 0.7%, its second weekly gain in a row. The trigger was worry about the debt being used to fund the AI build-out: CoreWeave fell 12% on Friday, its second big drop in three days, and memory and chip stocks sold off with it. A falling week is exactly when you want a written plan, not a gut reaction. GIP members: How Do You Decide What to Do in Falling Markets: A Simple Framework
2. Meta and Tesla report on Wednesday. Both report after the US close on Wednesday, so the numbers land after 9pm UK time. Consensus is about $6.77 a share for Meta on revenue of $63.29 billion, and $0.46 for Tesla on $27.92 billion. One detail stands out: Meta's earnings estimates have fallen 3.41% over the past 30 days, even as Truist raised its price target to a Street-high $1,000. When the estimates and the headlines disagree, I follow the estimates. Meta Platforms appeared in GIP's published stock examples for 2023 (+197.35%) and 2024 (+62.8%), and Tesla for 2023 (+112.24%). GIP members: Analysts Estimates
3. Earnings season is off to a strong start. About 45 S&P 500 companies have reported so far and 85% have beaten earnings estimates, according to FactSet. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup beat last week, while JPMorgan and Bank of America fell short. Another 70 S&P 500 companies report this week, including General Motors on Tuesday morning and Netflix on Tuesday evening, Procter & Gamble on Thursday and American Express on Friday. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth of about 29.5% for the quarter, which is a high bar. Good results still need a sensible price. GIP members: Company Valuation Ratios
4. Hot inflation keeps the Fed in play. US consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, more than expected. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 5.33% after the figures, then fell back to about 5.1% by Friday as investors sold tech and bought bonds. Futures put less than a 20% chance on a Fed rate rise on 28 October, but fully price a quarter-point rise to 4.00% to 4.25% on 9 December. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no signal either way. With yields above 5%, this is why the process I teach keeps two years of spending in cash, so a bad month for shares never forces a sale. GIP members: When Should You Move to Cash?
5. Oil is back near $110. Brent closed Friday at $109.86 a barrel, up 3.7% on the day, while US crude ended the week up almost 8%. Early this morning Brent was trading around $108, with the US and Iran still in a stand-off over the Strait of Hormuz. Expensive oil feeds straight into inflation, and inflation decides interest rates. I explain how I look at oil and yields together in the video below. GIP members: The Correct Mindset
6. The FTSE 100 had its best week in six months. The FTSE 100 closed Friday at 10,881.90, up 3.1% on the week, its biggest weekly gain since early April. Defensive sectors led: beverages rose 7.8% and medical equipment 6.9% over the week, while BAE Systems and Babcock climbed on Friday. Morningstar says UK large-cap ETFs have taken an estimated $3.38 billion of net inflows this year, the most since 2020, as investors diversify away from US mega-cap tech. A week like this is a good reminder of why I never limit my research to one country. GIP members: Stocks, ETFs, mutual funds/investment trusts: How Do I Decide Which is Right for Me?
7. A big week for UK data. UK jobs figures come out on Tuesday at 7am, then September inflation on Wednesday at 7am, with economists expecting 3.4% from 3.1% and core inflation at 2.8% from 2.6%. Retail sales and the flash PMI surveys follow on Friday. Markets put about a 90% chance on a Bank of England rate rise to 4.00% on 5 November, even though Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that signs of second-round inflation are limited. I don't rearrange a portfolio around one data release. GIP members: Is Market Timing Dead?
8. The Budget is nine days away, and banks are in the frame. Chancellor John Healey delivers the Autumn Budget on Wednesday 28 October. Bloomberg and the Guardian reported on Friday that he plans to raise the bank surcharge, and NatWest and Lloyds fell 1.2% and 0.9%. The IMF said he should look at property tax reform and better-targeted welfare spending before raising taxes on banks or workers. The Cash ISA cut for under-65s is already confirmed for April 2027, so if you've been sitting in cash because shares feel risky, now is the time to learn to invest properly inside a Stocks and Shares ISA. GIP members: Make Your Child A Millionaire (or Yourself)
9. Gold is steady and bitcoin is flat. Spot gold was around $4,181 an ounce early this morning, having slipped 0.83% over the past five sessions. Bitcoin was near $82,400, broadly flat on the week. With US yields above 5%, assets that pay no income have a strong competitor. Whatever you hold, the useful question is how much of your portfolio it now represents, and whether that still matches your plan. GIP members: Portfolio and Stock Risk Measuring Software/App
10. Another double upgrade. Bank of America double-upgraded Fox Corp to Buy from Underperform on Friday and raised its price target to $85 from $54, pointing to the pending Roku acquisition and the cost savings it expects. That's a big change of mind from one bank in one morning. Ratings are a useful starting point, but before I take any view on a company I check its financial strength and returns on capital myself. GIP members: CROCI & Altman: The Goldman Sachs Wealth Management Tool
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Important: This article is for education only and is not personal financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment. Alpesh Patel Ventures Ltd provides general investment education and is not authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority to give regulated investment advice. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The GIP stock examples quoted are selected published examples, not the full list or typical member returns. Market data is as at 19 October 2026 and may have changed since publication.
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